Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

VT

Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. (VYGR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 was primarily a strategic and pipeline-focused quarter; collaboration revenue fell to $6.3M from $90.1M in Q4 2023 and $24.6M in Q3 2024, driving a net loss of $34.5M and diluted EPS of -$0.59 as prior-year Novartis-related revenue recognition did not recur .
  • Management highlighted progress in tau programs: VY1706 (tau silencing gene therapy) advanced into IND-enabling studies with 50–73% cortical tau mRNA knockdown in NHPs; VY7523 (anti-tau antibody) entered a MAD study after a clean SAD safety/PK readout and CSF:serum 0.3% ratio .
  • Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $332.4M at 12/31/2024, with runway guided to mid-2027; partnerships represent meaningful optionality (developmental milestones of ~$2.9B and >$8B “bio-bucks” potential), not included in runway guidance .
  • Estimate comparisons from S&P Global were unavailable for Q4 2024 due to access limits; upcoming catalysts include AD/PD data (April 2025), 2025 INDs for partnered GBA1/Friedreich’s ataxia programs, and H2 2026 tau PET from VY7523 MAD, which may shape investor sentiment in the near term .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Tau programs advanced materially: VY1706 selected as development candidate and moved to IND-enabling studies; NHP data showed 50–73% reduction in tau mRNA across cerebral cortex after single IV dose, supporting translational potential .
  • VY7523 anti-tau antibody SAD study demonstrated acceptable safety/tolerability, dose-proportional PK, and CSF:serum 0.3% ratio; MAD initiated in AD patients, aiming for tau PET signal in H2 2026 .
  • Strong balance sheet and partnership leverage: $332.4M in cash at YE 2024; CFO cited ~$2.9B in developmental milestones and >$8B total potential bio-bucks, with upside not embedded in mid-2027 runway guidance .

What Went Wrong

  • Collaboration revenue dropped sharply: $6.3M in Q4 2024 versus $90.1M in Q4 2023 and $24.6M in Q3 2024, reflecting lapping of $80M Novartis-related revenue recognized in Q4 2023 and lower recognition under current collaboration agreements; net loss widened to $34.5M .
  • R&D expenses increased to $35.6M in Q4 2024 (from $25.8M in Q4 2023) due to program-related spending and facilities costs, elevating operating loss to -$38.3M .
  • SOD1 ALS program (VY9323) no longer advancing due to payload issues; while it extended cash runway, it removes a nearer-term potential clinical proof-of-concept avenue within Voyager-owned programs .

Financial Results

Income Statement Comparison (USD, $ Millions unless noted)

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Collaboration revenue$90.061 $24.629 $6.278
Net (loss) income$56.395 $(9.044) $(34.487)
Diluted EPS ($)$1.25 $(0.16) $(0.59)
Net Income Margin %62.6% (derived from revenue/net income) -36.7% (derived) -549.5% (derived)

Notes: Net Income Margin % is computed from cited revenue and net income values.

Operating Expenses and Other Items (USD, $ Millions)

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Research & development$25.756 $30.241 $35.583
General & administrative$10.242 $8.168 $8.994
Operating (loss) income$54.063 $(13.780) $(38.299)
Total other income$3.154 $4.779 $4.396

Balance Sheet KPIs (USD, $ Millions)

MetricQ3 2024 (9/30/2024)Q4 2024 (12/31/2024)
Cash, cash equivalents & marketable securities$345.360 $332.388
Total assets$426.041 $393.050
Deferred revenue$34.782 $30.397
Total stockholders’ equity$330.310 $299.760

Actual vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global) – Q4 2024

MetricActualConsensusSurprise
Collaboration revenue ($M)$6.278 N/A*N/A
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.59) N/A*N/A

*Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable due to access limitations.

Segment Breakdown

  • Voyager does not report commercial product segments; revenue is predominantly collaboration revenue recognized under Novartis and Neurocrine agreements .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q3 2024)Current Guidance (Q4 2024)Change
Cash runwayThrough 2027Into 2027 Into mid-2027 Raised/extended (more precise)
VY7523 (anti-tau) MAD2025 startMAD initiation in 2025; tau PET H2 2026 MAD initiated; tau PET H2 2026 reaffirmed Maintained (execution earlier than broad 2025)
VY1706 (tau gene therapy) IND2026IND/CTA in 2026 (tau program anticipated) IND/CTA in 2026 confirmed; IND-enabling underway Maintained (program advanced)
Partnered INDs (GBA1/FA)20252025 INDs expected 2025 INDs anticipated confirmed Maintained
SOD1 ALS program2025 INDIND mid-2025; biomarker POC potential No longer advancing VY9323; assessing alternate payloads Lowered/paused (program reset)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Tau gene therapy (VY1706)Advancing TRACER capsids; target cortical delivery; Q2 pipeline progress Continued prioritization; IND in 2026 anticipated Development candidate selected; IND-enabling underway; 50–73% tau mRNA knockdown in NHP; ADPD data in April Positive momentum
Anti-tau antibody (VY7523)SAD initiated; H1 2025 top-line planned SAD complete; MAD in 2025; H2 2026 tau PET SAD positive (safety/PK, CSF:serum 0.3%); MAD initiated; aiming for tau PET signal H2 2026 Advancing to patient data
ALPL shuttle (nonviral BBB delivery)Platform work highlighted; preclinical data to come Ongoing; positioning vs TFR shuttles Comparing ALPL vs TFR; potential safety/distribution advantages; early data later in 2025 Building optionality
Partnerships/milestonesCapsid license; multiple partner programs; strong cash Novartis capsid license ($15M upfront); Neurocrine DC ($3M); cash $345M CFO: ~$2.9B developmental milestones; >$8B bio-bucks potential, not in runway Strategic leverage intact
SOD1 ALS programIND mid-2025 and potential biomarker POC On track (mid-2025 IND) Discontinued prior lead payload (VY9323); assessing alternatives; runway benefits Program reset

Management Commentary

  • “Our pipeline includes 4 wholly-owned and 13 partnered programs... We are particularly excited about our 2 wholly-owned programs targeting tau, which we view as the most important target in Alzheimer’s disease.” – Alfred W. Sandrock, Jr., CEO .
  • “Our anti-tau antibody VY7523 is now in a clinical trial in Alzheimer’s disease patients, and our tau silencing gene therapy VY1706 is now in IND-enabling studies.” – Alfred W. Sandrock, Jr., CEO .
  • “We are seeing 50% to 73% knockdown of tau messenger RNA quite broadly across the brain... we will share more at the AD/PD conference in April.” – Alfred W. Sandrock, Jr., CEO .
  • “There were no serious adverse events... dose proportional pharmacokinetics as well as a CSF to serum ratio of 0.3%.” – Alfred W. Sandrock, Jr., CEO (VY7523 SAD) .
  • “There’s $2.9 billion of developmental milestones... if you add all the bio-bucks together, it’s over $8 billion.” – Nathan Jorgensen, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Tau landscape and external readouts: Management watching UCB bepranemab PK/PD and subgroups (APOE4, baseline tau) and Merck’s C-terminal antibody data; seeking clarity on tau PET-to-clinical relationships to set efficacy bars for anti-tau programs .
  • MAD study design: VY7523 MAD will push higher doses to maximize tau PET signal detection in earlier MCI/AD populations (lower tau), informed by bepranemab safety and biomarker learnings .
  • Gene therapy proof-of-concept: With SOD1 payload discontinued, human POC for IV capsids likely from Neurocrine-partnered programs (Friedreich’s ataxia frataxin, GBA1 enzyme/substrate biomarkers) expected post-IND filings in 2025 .
  • ALPL shuttle: Potential differentiation from TFR-based shuttles due to safety and kinetics; preclinical in vivo comparisons vs TFR planned later this year .
  • Tau strategy: Pursuing both knockdown and antibody approaches; tau knockdown may offer broader clinical effect (supported by BIIB080 natural history comparators), while antibody may best impede spread in lower-tau populations—sequencing therapies could be optimal .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue were unavailable due to access limits; as a result, we cannot assess beat/miss versus consensus for this quarter. Values retrieved from S&P Global could not be displayed due to SPGI daily request limit exceeded.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Collaboration revenue volatility persists given milestone-timing sensitivity; the Q4 drop was expected given lapping of 2023 Novartis recognition, but optics are negative on near-term P&L; focus should remain on pipeline milestones and partnered program progress .
  • Tau programs are the core narrative: robust NHP knockdown for VY1706 and clean SAD for VY7523 de-risk biology and delivery; upcoming AD/PD data and H2 2026 tau PET readouts are the likely stock catalysts over the next 12–18 months .
  • Balance sheet and BD optionality provide runway to mid-2027 without relying on new equity; partnered milestones (> $2.9B developmental, > $8B total potential) represent upside to runway not baked into guidance .
  • The discontinuation of VY9323 resets internal near-term clinical POC for capsids, but Neurocrine-partnered programs can fill that proof gap via biomarker readouts post-INDs in 2025—track those regulatory events closely .
  • For trading: watch AD/PD disclosures and any incremental tau PET biomarker clarity in 2025; external anti-tau data (Merck, J&J) may shape investor expectations and comparables for VY7523, influencing sentiment ahead of H2 2026 imaging data .
  • Medium-term thesis: If Voyager demonstrates clear biomarker efficacy (tau PET slowing, robust cortical knockdown) with acceptable safety via IV delivery, the platform’s CNS access (TRACER capsids, ALPL shuttle) could support multi-asset value creation with partnership leverage .
Non-GAAP notes: Voyager reports “net collaboration revenue” and “net R&D expenses” excluding reimbursed services under Neurocrine/Novartis agreements; see reconciliation for Q4 2024 (net collaboration revenue $4.385M; net R&D $33.690M) **[1640266_0001558370-25-002702_vygr-20250311xex99d1.htm:6]** **[1640266_3d21a9d0713b4fff812da4035702a350_7]** **[1640266_3d21a9d0713b4fff812da4035702a350_8]**.